Why the Patriots are a Lock to reach the AFC Championship Game

There are so many things pointing to a season of success for the Patriots this year it may be hard for me to recall them all as I type this.

Lets start with the fact that the Patriots did not lose one starter on defense or offense that they haven’t already replaced with a proven and equally talented NFL player, and this does not include the addition of Cooks, nor the drafted and undrafted FA players still to come.

After the Patriots went to the Super Bowl in 2011, they lost BJGE (RB), Matt Light (T), Brian Waters (G), Mark Anderson (DE), Andre Carter (DE), and three of their four not-so-noteworthy cornerbacks they had playing in the Super Bowl.

After the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2004, they lost their Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, and key veteran players like TY Law (CB), Roman Phifer (LB), and Ted Johnson(LB).

And after their devastating loss in the 2007 Super Bowl, in addition to losing players, Brady went down in the opening minutes of the 2008 season.

In some seasons, when looking at what was lost during the offseason coming off a Super Bowl run, it was clear almost from the outset, that they were unlikely to return.

In contrast:

The 2004 Patriots returned all their key veterans, or replaced those lost with better talent after their Championship in 2003. They lost Ted Washington but gained Keith Traylor and Vince Wilfork, they lost Antwan Smith but gained Corey Dillon.

After 2006 when they were short of quality WRs and the defense was hit with serious injuries causing them to fall short in the AFC Championship Game, they brought in Stallworth, Moss and Welker as well as Adalius Thomas and Junior Seau to create the most dominant team in the NFL that year.

So how does this offseason stack up in comparison to past years?

Despite their top weapon on Offense being on IR (Gronk) and their main RB being on empty (Blount) they were able to win the Super Bowl in 2016.  The Patriots are returning all their main contributors on Offense except for Blount and Bennett, but they have added Allen to replace Bennett, Burkhead could replace Blount, and they have added Cooks at WR. 

The Defense has filled in its few losses as well, Ryan is gone but they have signed Gilmore, Long is gone but they brought in Ealy, the Defense is essentially just as strong as it was, with the draft still to come.

Just as importantly to the team, the Patriots’ Staff remains intact, and it has been performing at the highest levels it ever has under Bill’s guidance of the last 17 seasons.

As it stands now the Patriots have maintained their core group of players almost completely. The cohesion between players and staff will carry over from last season.  The Cohesion between players on Offense will remain as strong as it was, and the adjustments between new players on Defense should be minimal since the additions are proven NFL players.

This is a veteran team, with a veteran staff, minimal offseason disturbance to the starting roster, a good blend of veterans and young players.  Any rookie that makes this team, will only make it even better.

Now lets consider the offseason of the top competitors in the AFC from last year:

The Texans - lost a couple of veterans of note, and will likely replace them through the draft, the bottom line however is that they don’t have a proven veteran quarterback, and what they have at QB now is just not good enough to carry that team any further than they already have gotten in seasons past.  So long as the QB situation remains in turmoil, I believe they will continue to be an also ran.

The Broncos - By any measuring stick, have not improved themselves,  they have issues on both lines and at QB, while its not impossible to imagine them marching themselves to the AFC Championship this year, its no more probable for them to accomplish this than it is for any other team (save the Pats).  Like the Texans, their QB situation is not settled.

While the Broncos are a solid team, they are not built to counter the Patriots' strengths the way some of their teams have been in the past, in the end even if they make it to the AFCCG, if the game is in Foxboro and not Mile High Stadium, this team doesn’t have what it takes to win.

The Ravens since their Super Bowl run and the loss of veteran leaders like Matt Birk, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Anquan Boldin, have not been able to regain their identity or demeanor of a tough, smashmouth, football team. While Ozzie Newsome is as good as anyone at assembling a great team he hasn’t seemed able to replace that core group of leaders.

Still they have one of the better coaching staffs in the NFL, and Ozzie Newsome has pulled magic out of the draft before, so it remains to be seen if the Ravens will remain mediocre or regain a semblance of their former selves.

The Bengals and Steelers are in no better situation than the Ravens, all three of these teams have Quarterbacks that have gotten the job done in the past, but recently have not been up to the task against the Patriots.  And it doesn’t help that all three reside in the Black&Blue Division and will be beating up on one another all season long vying for the Division Crown.

The Raiders more than any other AFC team, look primed to step up and challenge the Patriots for the AFC.  Jack Del Rio is an interesting HC, this is not his first merry-go-round at it, and he is in the mold of Bill Belichick in that he has proven himself to be a very good Defensive Coordinator, who didn’t get it done at his first stab at HC (with the Jaguars), and is now in his second go round at it and has turned the Raiders into a legitimate contender.  For Del Rio, much like Belichick, football has always been a part of his life, he is a former NFL player turned coach.

The Raiders added Jared Cook, an upgrade at TE, to an already powerful offense.  Should they add Marshawn Lynch as well, and he be able to perform like the Lynch of 2014 (very possible after a year off healing up, and still only 29 years old) they could easily be the toughest opposition for the Patriots in the AFC.

Final Analysis -

There is no team in the AFC, that is as well rounded, or as well organized (FO, Staff, Players) as the Patriots are heading into 2017.  They have replaced what few players they lost in Free Agency with young NFL players that are just as talented.

As it stands now, it looks as if the Patriots could be an improved team from 2016.  With any luck in the Draft, and with Undrafted players, this could be the strongest team of the Belichick era.